Came across these very interesting graphs from the excellent Calculated Risk Blog today:

This first graph shows Existing Home Sales from 1994 and forecasted out to Jan 2011. It’s interesting how this corresponds with our other blog post from this morning discussing the woes of the housing market. The artificial boost the homeowner tax credit gave first time homebuyers was quite significant, judging by that great drop in prices.

This graph above makes it look like inventory sure is going nowhere quickly. Despite historically low interest rates and many deals around on houses, people just simply are not buying properties. This means that we can expect some significant foreclosure activity and short sale activity for the next period of time (in our opinion: several more years). This underscores the importance to everyone involved in real estate the emergence of the short sale transaction from a niche category to a truly mainstream way of clearing out bad inventory on the bank’s books. It’s a tough nut to chew, but one banks are really going to have little other options.

Another interesting trend here is that year-over-year inventory, despite being negative for over a year, is now back in neutral territory. For a  true housing recovery, that inventory change needs to be dropping, not increasing, as it is doing here.

The last chart we have here is months of supply. This is a pretty astonishing graph, in that we are now at over a full year of supply! Even in the best of economic circumstances, clearing that kind of inventory takes a significant amount of time.

What does all this mean? It means buckle your seat belts, folks, because it’s gonna be a while before the housing market really sees a turnaround.

Very interesting video and article by the Associated Press today along with commentary from the LA Times:

Some startling information from the AP this morning indicating that sales of previously owned homes are down over 27% in July. The credit for this has partially to do with the expiration of the federal tax credit for new home buyers.

This drop was worse than expected, and the Natinoal Association of Realtors (NAR) has said this is the worst drop since 1968, and home sales are at their lowest levels since 1995.

“From our vantage point, the first-time home-buyers credit pulled forward demand — by definition this is what stimulus measures achieve — however the issue this time is that there was so little demand to be pulled forward, the credit has left no demand for the summer,” Dan Greenhaus, chief economic strategist for Miller Tabak + Co., wrote in a research note Tuesday morning. “The result is exactly what we’re seeing: a near, if not outright, collapse in housing.”

Total housing inventory jumped 2.5% at the end of July to 3.98 million homes available for sale, representing a 12.5-month supply at the current pace, up from an 8.9-month supply in June. Raw unsold inventory is still 12.9% below the 4.58 million in July 2008.

What does this mean? It means inventory is still very high, and home prices can be expected to stay suppressed for some time to come. Additionally; you can expect the short sale and foreclosure pace to continue for some time.

What are your thoughts? Post ‘em in the comments!

Courtesy of TheSunNews.com comes this article about Short Sale training growing at a huge clip, which is GREAT news for everyone involved in the transaction:

Short-sale training widespread

Realtors along the Grand Strand and throughout the country are rushing to get a new certification in short sales and foreclosures to keep up with changes in the real estate market since the downturn.

The short sale and foreclosure resource certification has taken off since it was launched by the National Association of Realtors in November. The association expects that 20,000 people will be certified by this weekend.

“That is definitely a national trend,” said Walter Molony, a spokesman for the association. “It is quite a national phenomena. We have people all over the country and it just started a few months ago.”

He said Realtors were looking for information on how to deal with those distressed properties as more customers expressed interest, so the certification was developed.

To obtain the certification, Realtors must complete a six-hour, in-person course and three online seminars. Attendance at the past few classes at the Coastal Carolinas Association of Realtors has been strong, said Laura Crowther, the association’s CEO.

“A lot of people are just coming out to determine ‘what else can I learn about short sales, are the short sales transactions for me,’” she said.

The association also has offered several additional programs such as an audio conference this week, which drew more than 80 real estate agents and others to listen to representatives from Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Freddie Mac discuss short sales.

“Because of the market, our folks are finding a need to get the designation,” Crowther said. “It certainly helps them understand the process better.”

Sam Hassell, a Realtor at Coldwell Banker Chicora who moved to the Grand Strand in the past year, said he got the certification because short sales will continue to be part of the market, and he needed to know more about them.

The classes taught him the basics and that he has more to learn because every bank has its own way of handling short sales.

“At this particular point there isn’t a Realtor out there that couldn’t gain something from learning as much as they can about this,” he said. “It’s something that we’re going to need in the day-to-day going forward.”

Mike Childs, a Realtor with the Watermark Real Estate Group, agrees that knowledge about short sales is important, but he got certified for a different reason.

“It’s useful to have the certification in our marketing,” he said. “A lot of our clients are asking ‘are you certified, are you knowledgeable?’”

Childs has been working with distressed properties as an investor for years so he was familiar with most of the information presented in the classes.

Still, he found the certification beneficial.

“I found it useful,” he said. “Any information, any training, any update is always useful.”

I think this certification was a great move by the National Association of Realtors, and the growth of it is very encouraging, for these four reasons:

1. It helps to ensure that Realtors know what is going on and the knowledge is standardized.  We all know it is still often the case that every person you talk to will have a different understanding of how a short sale works, what the steps are, and so on. Standardizing knowledge is a great way to keep everyone on the same page and make sure correct information is disseminated
2. As loan modifications and non-traditional transactions continue to grow, this training helps Realtors think “outside the box” when it comes to assisting buyers and sellers structure their deals.
3. The increasingly complex short sale environment means that education is critical. Realtors are so often the center of an entire transaction, that this training will help them play that role more effectively, and hopefully increase rate of getting deals completed successfully!
4. Realtors will have a better understanding of the many pitfalls that can occur when negotiating a short sale transaction (including liens, timeframe, finding a buyer, etc.) – this will help to mitigate those risks more accurately.

Ultimately I think training helps agents do their jobs better and will increase the likelihood of a successful short sale transaction. Likewise, investors would be smart to work with properly trained agents who know the ins and outs of the short sale transaction. Also,  Realtors who pick up this training are only helping themselves to be more flexible in a market. There are still a lot of Realtors out there who try to avoid the pre foreclosure market, but learning about it and working it can be an enormous boon, as evidenced by the many real estate agents who actually specialize in short sale transactions.

What are your thoughts? Any experiences with the training program and how it has helped?

Here are some quick links from the National Association of Realtors to their documents on HAFA, including their own FAQ.

Brochure – About HAFA:

• About HAFA Color Brochure

Government Guidelines

• Government Forms and Guidelines

NAR HAFA Program FAQ

• NAR HAFA Program FAQ